AT&T Mobile

The raucous applause you hear is from a half dozen Wall Street firms who will be cleaning up in one of the biggest deals since the financial meltdown.  AT&T's acquisition of T-Mobile at a hearty premium will make AT&T (129.2 million subscribers) the largest US carrier, bigger than Verizon (101.1).

While T-Mobile subscribers (like yours truly) see price hikes coming, and many are already AT&T rejectors who may flee for Verizon tout de suite, the broader concern for lack of competition is the deal-breaker.  That is, regulatory concern from Justice, primarily that this deal would bring the number of national wireless carriers to three from four.

AT&T is already spinning this as a huge net gain for consumers.  In the end, the cost savings AT&T wiill realize will probably justify the deal.  Since T-Mobile is privately held by Deutsche Telecom, much of the attendant financial circus will be absent, and our guess is that regulatators will be more willing to let this one go than consumers will.  They will see the reduction of national carriers down to 3 from 4, and the elimination of the value leader T-Mobile, and cry foul.